By Ray Gronberg

gronberg@heraldsun.com; 419-6648

DURHAM — Transit advocates say it’s far from a sure thing that they’ll press County Commissioners to call a referendum next year on a local-option sales tax to support new bus and rail service.

The timing of the vote is likely to turn on people’s perceptions of the economy and the local political climate, said David King, general manager of Triangle Transit.

“There’s an old cliche in the sports world that success is when preparation meets opportunity,” King said. “We’re going to forge ahead with the preparation part. The opportunity piece, we’ll know it when we see it, I think.”

King added that while a referendum in the fall of 2010 “would be great,” it “might not work out.”

Another advocate, Regional Transportation Alliance Executive Director Joe Milazzo, also said he can see a referendum slipping into 2011.

“I don’t know fall 2010 would be the highest probability, based on the conversations I am hearing,” he said.

King, Milazzo and other transit advocates were pleased last week that Gov. Beverly Perdue signed into law a measure giving Wake, Durham and Orange counties the authority to add a half cent to the sales tax rate to support transit, provided voters approve.

Fiscal analysts for the N.C. General Assembly estimate that the levy would, if passed in all three counties, bring in $73 million a year.

King and Milazzo identified several factors that could contribute to delaying referenda past the fall of 2010.

First, the bill itself requires county governments to develop and distribute to cities a plan for spending the money that outlines an “equitable distribution” of funds that meets the “identified needs of local public transportation systems,” be they for expansion or just to make sure people can get to social services.

Thanks to a citizens’ group, officials in the three counties already have the outline of an expanded transit system, but a lot of work still has to occur before a plan is ready.

King said he’s “optimistic” about the chances of finishing the necessary prep work by spring, but he conceded that it “might not be there.”

“We’re just going to tend our own garden and try to work with local officials to get plans everybody can get excited about, and let the rest take care of itself,” he added.

Political factors could also prompt a delay. Advocates are worried that if the economy is still lagging, voters won’t be in any mood to support a tax increase.

Milazzo noted that the state General Assembly complicated matters by approving a temporary, penny increase in the sales-tax rate to balance the state government’s budget.

The increase takes effect Tuesday and will push the sales tax in this area to 7.75 percent on many retail purchases, at least until its scheduled expiration on July 1, 2011.

That “will make it a challenge [to get support] for additional transit investment,” Milazzo said, adding that his group intends to poll public sentiment at some point to gauge a referendum’s chances.

Polling by other organizations has hinted that Republicans — generally skeptical of both taxes and transit services — are more motivated to turn out in the 2010 election cycle than Democrats.

King said he’s worried that even an on-paper improvement in the economy won’t be enough to prepare the ground.

“If the economy recovers as some have predicted but it’s a jobless recovery, there will still be a sour mood hanging over people,” he said.